In the past two weeks, the rare earth market has gone through a process from weak expectations to a rebound in confidence. August 17th was a turning point. Prior to this, although the market was stable, there was still a weak attitude towards short-term forecasts. Mainstream rare earth products were still hovering on the edge of volatility. During the Baotou meeting, some product inquiries were slightly active, and dysprosium and terbium products were sensitive, with high prices repeatedly rising, which subsequently drove up the price of praseodymium and neodymium. The industry generally believed that raw materials and spot prices were tightening, The replenishment market will continue, with a reluctance to sell mentality running through the beginning of this week. Subsequently, major varieties broke through the price limit bottleneck, showing obvious fear of high prices and cash out performance. Affected by concerns, the market began to weaken and recover in the middle of the week. In the later part of the week, the prices of mainstream products tightened and stabilized due to the influence of leading enterprise procurement and some magnetic material factories stocking.
Compared to the previous time, the price of praseodymium neodymium has once again touched the price level of 500000 yuan/ton after 2 months, but the actual high price transaction was not satisfactory, appearing to wither like a flash in the pan, and the high price has caused downstream buyers to restrain and wait and see.
From the performance of these two weeks, it can be seen that the early trend of praseodymium neodymium prices in this round has been stable: starting from mid July, there has been a slow upward movement without any correction action, steadily catching up with the rise. At the same time, light rare earths are releasing demand in small quantities in the high price range. Although metal factories have been passively following up and adjusting the upside down range, in reality, there is still a slight inversion between their transactions and the corresponding raw materials, which also shows that metal factories are still interested in bulk cargo Be cautious in controlling the pace of spot shipments. Dysprosium and terbium continued to exceed the limit in a small number of inquiries and transactions.
Specifically, at the beginning of the 14th, the trend of praseodymium and neodymium began with a weak and stable start, with oxides testing around 475000 yuan/ton. Metal companies timely restocked, causing a certain degree of tightening of low level oxides. At the same time, the price of praseodymium and neodymium in the metal timely returned to around 590000 yuan/ton and fluctuated, and metal factories showed a relatively weak willingness to ship at low prices, giving the market a feeling of difficulty in getting down and up. Starting from the afternoon of the 17th, with low inquiries for dysprosium and terbium from top magnetic material factories, the market’s bullish attitude became consistent, and buyers actively followed suit. The high level relay of dysprosium and terbium quickly heated up the market. At the beginning of this week, after the high price of praseodymium neodymium oxide reached 504000 yuan/ton, it retreated to around 490000 yuan/ton due to cold weather. The trend of dysprosium and terbium is similar to that of praseodymium and neodymium, but they have been constantly exploring and rising in various news sources, making it difficult to increase demand. As a result, the price of dysprosium and terbium products has formed a current situation of high cannot be low, and due to the strong confidence in the industry’s expectations of gold, silver, and ten, they are reluctant to sell, which is becoming increasingly apparent in the short term.
Leading enterprises still have a clear attitude towards stabilizing the praseodymium neodymium market. The praseodymium neodymium market also began to recover and strengthen pricing in the later part of the week under the influence of internal and external forces. The upside down of metal praseodymium neodymium has gradually eased since this month. With the visible and extended spot orders, under the compression of inventory in metal factories, the metal trial quotation has become rigid upward, and low level oxides are no longer available on the weekend, and the metal has steadily followed the rise.
This week, heavy rare earths continue to shine brightly, with dysprosium and terbium products constantly reaching their highest levels since the price drop, especially dysprosium products, whose prices are set to break through this year’s highest point; Terbium products, with a two-week increase of 11.1%. The upstream reluctance to sell dysprosium and terbium products has been unprecedented, and at the same time, downstream procurement has been following up in a tangle, easing the situation of alloy inversion. Additionally, due to the persistent difference in the rise rate of dysprosium and terbium, there is also a wait-and-see situation in large-scale procurement.
As of August 25th, the quotation for main rare earth products is 49-495 thousand yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide; Metal praseodymium neodymium: 605-61000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium oxide 2.44-2.45 million yuan/ton; 2.36-2.38 million yuan/ton of dysprosium iron; 7.9-8 million yuan/ton of terbium oxide; Metal terbium 9.8-10 million yuan/ton; 288-293000 yuan/ton of gadolinium oxide; 265000 to 27000 yuan/ton of gadolinium iron; Holmium oxide: 615-625000 yuan/ton; Holmium iron costs 620000 to 630000 yuan/ton.
After two weeks of sudden rise, correction, and stabilization, the procurement of magnetic materials has been restrained based on frequent fluctuations in high prices. The strategy of separating and metal factories seeking bargains has not changed, and some industry insiders expect the rise to ease in the future, even if the current price level is still in the buyer’s market. From the current feedback from the spot market, the shortage of praseodymium and neodymium may become more apparent after purchase. In the near future, the probability of upstream supply enterprises rising with orders is still high, and corresponding transactions may follow up. In the short term, the support of the market demand for order replenishment at the end of the month may support small fluctuations in praseodymium and neodymium prices within a rational range.
In terms of dysprosium and terbium oxide, which are already close to 2.5 million yuan/ton and 8 million yuan/ton, it can be seen that although downstream procurement is more cautious, the trend of ore prices rising and tight is difficult to change in the short term. Although the initial demand is reduced, the upward rate may slow down to some extent, but the future growth space is still considerable and obvious.
Post time: Aug-29-2023