At this time last year, the linear correction in rare earth prices did not stop; At this time of the year, rare earth prices have fluctuated and repeatedly stabilized for exploration. The old age has passed, and now it surpasses the old beauty.
This week (7.10-14), the rare earth market is in line with the weather, with the solar term falling and Yang Qi rising. Rare earth prices have also recovered from a weak outlook to a hot trend, and both light and heavy rare earths have shown a strong reversal, with signs of rising and constantly rising. Oxide prices are catching up with last week’s average price, like a roller coaster like market staged this week.
At the beginning of the week, the prices of concentrate related to Baotou Steel and the North were lowered by 35%, causing market panic. There was no lowest price for quotation and transaction, only a lower price. The decline rate of praseodymium and neodymium accelerated, and the magnitude increased. As the market price weakens, the limit of high prices for large factories has repeatedly come under pressure. Various groups have worked together to recover the current weakness, buying at high prices one after another, and metal factories are actively replenishing orders. Affected by this, holding companies are waiting for high returns, and low level supply is also dormant and waiting, with quotes and actual transactions catching up.
The off-season of demand and the weak pattern have already taken root in the hearts of downstream consumers. The overall market supply and demand relationship has not improved this week, and demand remains the mainstream attitude in the industry. With rationality and order dominance, the news boost appears relatively weak. However, short selling and blank costs have caused downstream purchases to affect their price expectations and hesitate to take action.
As of July 14th, the quotation for rare earth products is 445000 to 45000 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide, which is the same as last weekend; Neodymium oxide: 455000 to 460000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.13-215 million yuan/ton, up 6.5 percentage points compared with last weekend; 7.1-7.2 million yuan/ton of terbium oxide; Gadolinium(III) oxide 253-25800 yuan/ton; Holmium(III) oxide 53-54 million yuan/ton; Metal praseodymium neodymium 54-550000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium iron: 202-20.3 million yuan/ton; Dysprosium metal 2.65-2.7 million yuan/ton; Metal terbium 8.9-91 million yuan/ton; 24-245000 yuan/ton of gadolinium iron; Holmium iron costs 55-560000 yuan/ton.
Looking at it, this week’s prices have been relatively chaotic, with high quotations and accompanying shipments flooding the market, resulting in several changes in daily prices. At the beginning of the week, there was a consensus of weakness. Praseodymium neodymium oxide reached 42-425000 yuan/ton. The bidding from small and medium-sized trade enterprises constantly refreshed the bottom line of transactions. Metal factories and magnetic materials timely supplemented orders, supported by trading volume, and low price shipments tightened; In the middle of the week, large factories stabilized their purchasing prices and regained confidence in stabilizing. The bottom line information became the reference price for downstream procurement, and metal factories passively followed the price; During the weekend, the upstream mines tightened, resulting in shorter processing fees, stronger oxides and reluctance to sell. Pursuing higher prices led to a rebound in metal factory prices and cautious shipments. The market experienced a subtle turnaround, with the pace of price hikes for mainstream products accelerating, bargaining space narrowing, and even purchasing with almost no bargaining capital. However, this was the case. Most downstream companies chose the latter in continuing to wait and quickly replenish mining.
In addition, the boost effect of heavy rare earths this week was much better than market expectations. Compared to the previous short rise and short fall, upstream and downstream trading remained relatively rational this week, resulting in a more solid pace of upward adjustment for dysprosium terbium oxide products. However, the upside down of alloys is still deepening.
Subsequent judgment: The concentrate that was digested in one day was lowered, and the praseodymium and neodymium that were priced up with four days of action were stabilized. This prompted some supplementary orders to vote on the current market with their feet. Although it was bearish in the off-season, it was not bearish. The cost pressure of oxides has exacerbated the market situation where prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. With the game between downstream demand and costs, praseodymium and neodymium may continue to fluctuate repeatedly in the short term, but the amplitude and length are not easy to report high expectations. Strong confidence in heavy rare earths, from the perspective of ore prices and spot costs and inventory of separation plants, next week may be worth looking forward to
Post time: Jul-14-2023