This week (July 31st to August 4th), the overall performance of rare earths was quiet, and a stable market trend has been rare in recent years. There are not many market inquiries and quotations, and trading companies are mostly on the sidelines. However, subtle differences are also evident.
At the beginning of the week, while waiting for the northern listing price to pass quietly, the industry generally made advance predictions about the flat listing of northern rare earths in August. Therefore, after the release of 470000 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide and 580000 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium metal, the overall market was relieved. The industry did not show too much attention to this price level and was looking forward to the next steps of leading enterprises.
Under the shortage of metal in stock, cost support for praseodymium neodymium oxide, and timely price stabilization by leading enterprises, the low transaction price of praseodymium neodymium series products has continuously moved up. Compared with last week, the rate of increase in praseodymium neodymium has been slow but stable. The transaction price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is up at 470000 yuan/ton, a 4% increase compared to a month ago. In this price environment, the trend of praseodymium neodymium has started to slow down, and downstream procurement is particularly cautious. However, the upstream mentality is still biased towards a positive attitude, and there is currently no bearish idea, nor is there any obvious fear of high shipments. Currently, both upstream and downstream are showing rationality.
The trend of dysprosium and terbium is divergent, which is clearly related to policy expectations. On the one hand, the spot inventory of dysprosium is mostly concentrated in the group, and the bulk market is not large. Although there was a slight upward trend in dysprosium oxide after the withdrawal of all parties at the beginning of the week, there has never been a sharp decline. Although the policy correlation and expectations did not match during the week, the support for the market continues, leading to a synchronous tightening of the low level of dysprosium oxide. On the other hand, for terbium products, market participation has weakened relatively, and prices have always fluctuated in the middle. Influenced by mining prices and demand, both downward and upward movements are limited. However, the sensitivity of heavy rare earths to various aspects of the market is exceptionally strong. It is not so much the appearance of terbium that is stable, but rather that it accumulates momentum, which also makes the mentality of industry holders slightly tense.
As of August 4th, the quotation and transaction status of various series of products: Praseodymium neodymium oxide 472-475 thousand yuan/ton, with the transaction center near the low point; Metal praseodymium neodymium is 58-585 thousand yuan/ton, with a transaction close to a low level; Dysprosium oxide is 2.3 to 2.32 million yuan/ton, with transactions close to a low level; Dysprosium iron 2.2-223 million yuan/ton; Terbium oxide is 7.15-7.25 million yuan/ton, with a small amount of transactions near the low level, and factory quotations are decreasing, resulting in higher costs; Metal terbium 9.1-9.3 million yuan/ton; Gadolinium oxide: 262-26500 yuan/ton; 245-25000 yuan/ton of gadolinium iron; 54-550000 yuan/ton of holmium oxide; 55-570000 yuan/ton of holmium iron; Erbium oxide costs 258-2600 yuan/ton.
This week’s transactions mainly focused on replenishment and on-demand procurement. The slow rise of praseodymium and neodymium did not have much support from the demand side. However, at the current price level, there are certain concerns in both upstream and downstream, so the operation is extremely cautious. The metal end is passively linked to the rise and contraction, and some downstream orders have tight cash and flexible payment methods, leading to metal prices also rising. However, the trend of praseodymium and neodymium is also full of uncertainty. If the support of leading enterprises subsides, There may be room for further weakening of the price range, while on the contrary, there may still be a possibility of further upward adjustment of praseodymium and neodymium.
After the landing of dysprosium products on the news, there is still a willingness to stabilize prices in the market. Although some holders shipped according to market transaction prices this week, the shipment volume is limited and there is no fear of high selling. The inquiries from large factories still have some support, and the tightening of circulating spot goods may make it possible to maintain stability in the short term, but there may be risks in the medium term.
Post time: Aug-08-2023