8.28-9.1 Rare Earth Weekly Review
High market expectations, confidence in leading companies, and hidden concerns about the economic situation have led to a state of wanting to rise, being difficult, wanting to retreat, and being unwilling to do so in the rare earth market this week (8.28-9.1).
Firstly, at the beginning of the week, the rare earth market continued its upward trend last weekend. Driven by low inquiries from large enterprises, separation plants and trading companies began to try to chase up high quotations. Driven by a small amount of supplementary orders, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was once again tested at 505000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, metal factories continued to rise, and the quotation of praseodymium neodymium factories starting from 620000 yuan/ton reappeared. As if the market had resumed last week, on Tuesday, trading companies began to increase their shipments and offer discounts. The “pragmatic” pace of shipments followed suit, but the separation and metal factories were restrained and conservative in stabilizing prices, which led to a slowdown in the market performance this week. Downstream companies were generally wait-and-see and cautious while waiting for the listing price of northern rare earths at the end of the month.
Secondly, due to temporary export restrictions on mines in Myanmar and environmental protection policies in the Longnan region, sentiment for dysprosium and terbium has risen. At the beginning of the week, it was driven by praseodymium and neodymium, leading to a simultaneous increase in both quotation and transaction prices. Subsequently, due to the stability of high price transactions and the difficulty in finding low-priced sources of goods, as well as the high quotation and restraint of shipments from separation plants, dysprosium and terbium products have stabilized and slightly increased in transactions.
Finally, the trend of gadolinium, holmium, and erbium this week has been somewhat magical. Driven by mainstream products, the oxide prices of gadolinium, holmium, and erbium have continued to rise, and policy interpretations generally believe that the tightening of spot prices will become a short-term normal. Therefore, price increases are relatively fast, with erbium oxide rising the most significantly. However, the inquiries for gadolinium iron and holmium iron also reflect that orders for magnetic materials have not completely improved, leading to metal factories still focusing on low inquiries, low procurement, and profit margin shipments.
A feeling of difficulty in descending and difficulty in ascending. Starting from the afternoon of the 17th, with low inquiries for dysprosium and terbium from top magnetic material factories, the market’s bullish attitude became consistent, and buyers actively followed suit. The high level relay of dysprosium and terbium quickly heated up the market. At the beginning of this week, after the high price of praseodymium neodymium oxide reached 504000 yuan/ton, it retreated to around 490000 yuan/ton due to cold weather. The trend of dysprosium and terbium is similar to that of praseodymium and neodymium, but they have been constantly exploring and rising in various news sources, making it difficult to increase demand. As a result, the price of dysprosium and terbium products has formed a current situation of high cannot be low, and due to the strong confidence in the industry’s expectations of gold, silver, and ten, they are reluctant to sell, which is becoming increasingly apparent in the short term.
Looking back this week, there are the following characteristics:
1. The price of praseodymium and neodymium is relatively stable and strong, making it difficult to trade at low prices. The stability of the front-end price is relatively obvious.
2. At the beginning of the week, the trend of pulling up, watching in the middle of the week, and exploring again over the weekend is more obvious, but low inquiries and low prices remain the main tone.
3. Downstream magnetic material bulk orders have clear requirements for price, quantity, and procurement time.
4. The inverted situation in the front-end of the industrial chain is gradually easing: factories that separate waste are more active in price reduction and procurement preparation; In the midst of rising and firm raw ore prices, raw ore separation companies are cautious in mining and replenishing; Metal factories are offering prices for praseodymium neodymium and dysprosium iron to catch up with the high school and alleviate cost inversion; Magnetic material companies have slightly increased their quotations in both rough and new orders for magnetic steel. Of course, the idea of exchanging time for cost to alleviate hangovers is widely held at all ends of the industrial chain.
5. The news side remains the main source of short-term market sentiment. Dysprosium and terbium were most significantly affected by news this week, with prices rising rapidly.
6. The speculation of gadolinium, holmium, and erbium is highly indicative, with a relatively concentrated supply of goods and a slight increase in transaction prices. Trading enterprises are actively inquiring about orders, but downstream delivery is still poor.
As of this Friday, the prices of various series of products are: 498000 to 503000 yuan/ton of praseodymium neodymium oxide; Metal praseodymium neodymium 610000 yuan/ton; Neodymium oxide is 505-501000 yuan/ton, and metallic neodymium is 62-630000 yuan/ton; Dysprosium oxide 2.49-2.51 million yuan/ton; 2.4-2.43 million yuan/ton of dysprosium iron; 8.05-8.15 million yuan/ton of terbium oxide; Metal terbium 10-10.2 million yuan/ton; 298-30200 yuan/ton of gadolinium oxide; 280000 to 290000 yuan/ton of gadolinium iron; 62-630000 yuan/ton of holmium oxide; Holmium iron costs 63-635 thousand yuan/ton.
Overall, the current phenomenon of bidding for praseodymium neodymium shipments has eased, and the pressure on raw ore and waste oxides is severe. In the two months of easing the upward trend, inventory at all ends of the industry chain is not sufficient. Perhaps, in the future, although the market’s initiative will still be dominated by buyers, it will eventually return to sellers. From a macro perspective, a new round of stimulus policies is on the way, and September will be an important window for the implementation of policies, whether real estate or credit policies. From a microscopic perspective, looking at the recent fluctuations of praseodymium and neodymium, the decline of oxides has been continuously narrowing, and the spiral upward kinetic energy has accumulated more abundant. For future judgment, although praseodymium neodymium is more market-oriented compared to dysprosium and terbium, leading enterprises highlight their leadership style, and upstream prices will continue to stabilize or even further increase. For medium and heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium, based on current patterns and news, there is still room for growth.
Post time: Sep-05-2023